The signs that tell us a global slowdown is coming
The current state of the global economy is shrouded in uncertainty, with the looming threat of tariffs casting a dark shadow over economic forecasts. Economists at JPMorgan have pegged the probability of a global recession at a staggering 60 per cent, citing the potential impact of aggressive trade policies on the US economy and the […]
Spotting Treatt’s green and red flags
Treatt, a company founded in 1886 by Richard Court Treatt, has undergone significant changes and transformations over the years. Originally established as a supplier of raw materials for flavors and fragrances, Treatt has evolved into a leading manufacturer and innovator in the industry. Following Richard Court Treatt’s passing in 1924, the Bovill family became major […]
An investment lesson behind the White House’s Signal gaffe
The recent US government Signal message service controversy brought to light not only a security breach and threat to the US military but also shed light on the new administration’s approach to markets. The leaked messages revealed a reductionist view of prices, where a single factor was isolated and given undue weight in decision-making. In […]
Why interest rates must be cut
Chancellor Struggles as Economy Faces Challenges Despite a slight decrease in inflation to 2.6 per cent in March, Chancellor of the Exchequer is facing a myriad of challenges in managing Britain’s economy. One of the pressing new issues is the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Borrowing remains a significant hurdle for the government. […]
The US is no longer the easy option
The recent upheaval in the stock market has left investors reeling, with gold prices soaring to a new high of $3,500 and currencies like sterling, the Swiss franc, and the yen gaining strength. This market turbulence can be attributed to the actions of the US administration under President Donald Trump, who has been embroiled in […]
How likely is a US recession?
Is the US economy heading towards a recession? This question is causing concern across the globe, given the US’s status as the world’s largest economy and the issuer of the dominant currency. When the US economy falters, it has ripple effects that impact the rest of the world. Typically, governments tend to paint a positive […]
Markets start pricing in Trump’s ignorance
The 2008 financial crisis dealt a heavy blow to the credibility of neoliberal economists. Blamed for promoting unchecked capitalism, economists like Milton Friedman were accused of contributing to the overvaluation of the US mortgage-backed securities market. This failure to identify the vulnerability in the mortgage market led to a catastrophic global recession. In the aftermath […]
Listing rules change leaves a sour taste for Tate & Lyle investors
Tate & Lyle (TATE) has undergone a significant transformation in recent years, moving away from its traditional image as a sugar company to become a growth-focused speciality food and beverage solutions business. This shift has not been without its challenges, with the share price remaining stagnant for the past two decades. In 2010, Tate & […]
How smart investors react to a trade war
The recent week of turmoil on global stock markets came to an unexpected halt when US President Donald Trump softened his stance on tariffs. Trump’s aggressive tariffs had caused trillions of dollars in market value to be lost, leading to the sharpest declines in years. Specifically targeting countries with high trade surpluses, Trump imposed tariffs […]
The bond market spares Rachel Reeves – for now
After the recent Spring Statement by Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the gilt markets remained calm, with minimal movement in the 10-year yield. This stability was a relief for the Labour government, especially given the turbulent market conditions experienced in October and the fallout from the 2022 “mini” Budget. Reeves’s emphasis on fiscal credibility played a significant […]