Ed Miliband’s ambitious targets for offshore wind energy by 2030 are facing significant challenges, according to a recent report by BloombergNEF. The Energy Secretary’s goal of reaching 43 gigawatts (GW) of offshore windfarm capacity appears to be out of reach, with the analysis predicting a shortfall of 10GW.

This setback comes as Ørsted, the world’s largest offshore wind developer, decided to withdraw from plans to expand the Hornsea project off the East Yorkshire coast due to rising costs. The project, which would have doubled in size, was expected to power 2.6 million homes. Additionally, SSE is scaling back investment in a project to build the world’s largest offshore wind farm on Scotland’s east coast, facing opposition from wildlife charities concerned about the impact on seabirds.

The challenges in expanding offshore wind energy include high interest rates, difficulties in sourcing components, and expected declines in long-term electricity prices. These factors have made some government subsidy contracts, such as contracts for difference, financially unviable for developers. BloombergNEF warned that only a small fraction of the planned 16.6GW-worth of wind projects may actually go ahead.

Despite the potential shortfall in offshore wind capacity, BloombergNEF believes that Ed Miliband could still achieve his target of gas supplying only 5% of electricity generated by the end of the decade if weather conditions remain favorable. On a more positive note, the UK is on track to meet Miliband’s solar power targets of 47GW to 50GW by 2030.

In response to the report, a spokesperson for the Department of Energy Security and Net Zero refuted the claims, stating that there is a strong pipeline of projects to deliver the required offshore wind capacity by 2030. The government’s mission-led approach aims to navigate through global challenges and commercial decisions to meet the targets and create a more sustainable energy system.

However, Ed Miliband faced another setback with the news that BP’s H2Teeside hydrogen project, a crucial component of his net zero plans, is also at risk of being scrapped or scaled back. The project was expected to contribute significantly to the clean power target for 2030.

Despite these challenges, the government remains committed to achieving its renewable energy targets and transitioning to a more sustainable energy system. It will be crucial to overcome the obstacles facing offshore wind and hydrogen projects to ensure a successful transition to a low-carbon future.