The current house price data is causing quite a stir, with conflicting reports from different sources. According to Rightmove, there was a slight monthly increase of 0.6 per cent in May, resulting in a 1.2 per cent rise compared to last year. However, Nationwide paints a more positive picture, reporting a 3.5 per cent annual house price growth. On the other hand, the official UK House Price Index (HPI) shows a monthly rise of 1.1 per cent and a 6.4 per cent increase in house prices compared to last year.

The discrepancies in these indices can be attributed to the different methodologies used to measure house prices. Rightmove and Zoopla track new seller asking prices, providing a real-time measure of the market. Nationwide and Halifax, on the other hand, base their data on mortgage lending post-survey approvals, which may not capture cash sales. The UK HPI tracks completed sales, offering a comprehensive but lagged view of the market.

The recent changes in stamp duty have further complicated the house price data. The reduction in the nil-rate threshold in April led to a surge in transactions as buyers rushed to beat the deadline. This surge is reflected in the UK HPI, while more timely measures like Nationwide and Rightmove show a post-April lull in activity.

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest modest growth in house prices for the rest of the year. However, there are clear downside risks, with mortgage approvals declining for the third consecutive month. Speculation about tax rises in the Autumn Budget is also weighing on sentiment, with experts warning that significant tax increases could impact consumer confidence and house prices.

With the stamp duty surge over and no immediate base rate cuts in sight, house prices are expected to flatline for the remainder of the year. It seems like the market is facing a period of uncertainty and potential stagnation in the coming months.