After a whirlwind start to his second term, President Donald Trump has wasted no time in implementing a series of executive orders that are poised to have a significant impact on the US economy. While some of these orders, such as renaming the Gulf of Mexico and pardoning those involved in the Capitol building attacks, have garnered attention, it is the ones focused on immigration and deregulation that are expected to have far-reaching consequences.
One of the key areas Trump has targeted is immigration, with executive orders declaring a national emergency at the southern border, ending birthright citizenship, and resuming construction of a border wall. Economists predict that these measures could lead to a significant slowdown in labor force growth, with deportations potentially reaching levels not seen since the Obama administration.
In addition to his immigration policies, Trump has also taken steps to streamline bureaucracy by reinstating the ‘Schedule F’ executive order, which reclassifies federal workers and makes it easier to terminate their employment. This move, coupled with his focus on energy independence and deregulation, is expected to have implications for various sectors of the economy, including crude oil production, financial services, and industrial development.
While Trump has hinted at imposing tariffs on foreign countries to benefit American citizens, these measures have yet to be implemented. Instead, he has initiated reviews to assess the US trade position, particularly with China, and explore ways to strengthen the country’s industrial base. Canada and Mexico could be the first targets of potential tariffs, with reports suggesting that they may face levies in the near future.
For UK investors, Trump’s policies could have both positive and negative implications. While the US economy is projected to experience solid growth under his administration, concerns about government finances and inflation remain. Tariffs and deregulation could also impact markets, with some analysts predicting that uncertainty and tariff threats may outweigh any potential benefits for US stocks.
Despite these challenges, UK investors may find opportunities in sectors like energy and financials, which could benefit from US deregulation. The FTSE 100, in particular, has high revenue exposure to these industries, making it a potentially attractive investment option. Additionally, the UK’s focus on services exports may help insulate its economy from the impact of goods tariffs, although a broader deterioration in global trade relations could pose a different set of challenges.
Overall, Trump’s second term is off to a dynamic start, with his policies likely to shape the economic landscape for years to come. As investors navigate these changes, staying informed and adaptable will be key to capitalizing on emerging opportunities in the market.